MARKETING PREDICTION #2 FOR 2012: THE EMERGENCE OF GUILDS

In terms of strategic marketing, I believe the concept of Guilds will begin to emerge in 2012. Let me explain:

I am reminded of a classic Harvard Business Study that I first saw in the mid-1980’s, while getting my MBA. It was named Marketing Myopia. It presented a huge problem that Hollywood had in the 1970’s: the movie industry was dying. The new phenomena of VHS tapes, which presented movies on the cheap and at home, and cable TV, which allowed people to segment themselves according to their tastes, were crushing the traditional mass-movie market. The giant film studios sat half empty. Movie theaters were empty most weekdays.

The answer was a simple shift in strategy. Hollywood stopped defining itself as the movie industry and started defining itself as the entertainment industry. And everything changed. VHS tapes became a new market, not the competition. Cable TV became another new market, not just for its movies, but for its studios – filming for all those stations with 24-hour a day of programming. Entertainment of every segment and every taste meant multiplex movie theaters filled smaller screens and different films for different audiences. Food was served, and restaurants were attached to the movie theaters. Hollywood never looked back.

Part of this decentralized outlook meant that the movie studios no longer had exclusive contracts with the stars and crews (less overhead). Today, when you want to film a movie, you rent a studio, bring in a screenplay, and hire a team for the project – producer, director, actors, sound screw, lighting specialists, cameramen, distribution company, marketing company, etc.

Why not do the same for other industries? Let’s look at residential construction. Many fewer custom homes are being built, but there is plenty of need for high-end remodeling. The homeowners no longer need to go to (and pay for) a builder to get great craftsmen – they can hire them directly and independently, as a team for that project (a superintendent, kitchen cabinet company, electrician, plumber, floor company, lighting company, appliance company, tile company, painter, carpenter, countertop pro, etc. to remodel a kitchen).

If the homeowner goes directly to the craftsmen, then the craftsmen can no longer depend on builders to bring them business. They have to become businesses themselves, and these are not business people – they are crafts people. But they need the money, power and business acumen of builders. In other words, they need to pool their money, networks and efforts for the common good. They need to share customers, prospects, offices, office help, accountants, lawyers, health insurance policies, marketing companies, etc. They need to form Guilds.

I believe Guilds, or something like Guilds, will begin all across America, as our new economy emerges from the Great Recession and gives birth to many more specialty and craft businesses in almost all industries. Guilds – not unions for individual workers but Guilds for individual companies – will be coming to your industry and your town soon, starting in 2012.